What’s Really Happening Across SARASOTA, LAKEWOOD RANCH, VENICE, & PARRISH Right Now???

Introduction

Today’s post is all about what I’m really seeing across the Sarasota metro, from Lakewood Ranch to Venice to Parrish. The market feels uncertain. Builders are throwing out huge incentives. Some towns are developing faster than others. Some buyers are wondering whether to wait—or whether they’ll miss out altogether.

So, I’ve got six thought exercises for you. These are the conversations I’ve been having lately with clients behind the scenes—things that are nuanced, current, and hopefully valuable as you weigh your options.

Let’s dive in.

1. Upper Lakewood Ranch vs. Lower Parrish

This is a comparison I’ve been making for a while, but it’s more relevant now than ever.

When you look at Upper Lakewood Ranch—northeast of downtown, above State Road 70 and into the State Road 64 corridor—you’re talking about areas that are 10 to 11 miles further from town than the southern and central parts of Lakewood Ranch. These areas are more affordable, more family-centric, and still growing fast.

Now enter Parrish, the town just north of Lakewood Ranch. Historically, it’s been viewed as a junior version of Lakewood Ranch—go a little farther and save money. That idea still holds water: median home prices in Lakewood Ranch hover around $680K, while Parrish sits closer to $410K–$420K.

But here's the real kicker: once you're up in Upper Lakewood Ranch, you're already halfway to Parrish. The gap isn't what it once was. If you’re shopping in the $450K–$600K range, suddenly Parrish vs. northern Lakewood Ranch becomes a very fair fight—and one worth reconsidering.

2. The Market Is Slow—But Parrish Isn’t

Yes, the market overall is slow. Builders are offering incentives, and there's a general lack of urgency in Sarasota right now. But Parrish? It’s buzzing.

A couple years ago, there were just a few headline communities—Artisan Lakes, Canoe Creek, maybe one or two Del Webb options. But today? It’s exploding. We’re talking:

Rye Ranch (massive, multi-phase)

Sierra, Salt Meadows, Oakfield (4,000+ planned units!)

Prosperity Lakes (active adult)

Firethorn (Taylor Morrison)

North River Ranch (Neil’s anchor community)

Multiple new schools and amenity centers coming

The point is, it’s no longer a sleepy alternative. It’s a real suburban hub, with affordability and inventory that Lakewood Ranch simply can’t match anymore—especially if you need 4–5 bedrooms in the $500K–$600K range.

3. Wellen Park Is Hot—But Buyers Need Vision

Wellen Park is a fascinating case. It’s in southern Venice and meant to be a mini Lakewood Ranch—but we’re in a bit of a “vision gap” right now.

When it was newer, there weren’t model homes or a completed downtown to show buyers. Builders were selling from adjacent communities, and it was tough for people to visualize the future.

Today? Downtown Wellen is open. You can see it. You can walk it. And yet—with communities like Palmera, Everly, Lakespur, and Oak Bend coming in—people are hesitating again. Why? Prices are creeping up. Some custom builders are entering with $1M–$2M product. And once again, buyers are asking: "Is this too early?"

But here’s my take: Wellen Park is in its infancy. The next phases will build on what’s already here. There’s limited land west (the Gulf blocks expansion), and renderings of future commercial districts look promising. If you’re smart about what you buy—and avoid the oddly overpriced options—I think there’s real equity opportunity here.

4. Buyers Are Craving Central Sarasota Master Plans

Clients keep asking me: "Why isn’t there more master-planned development in central Sarasota?" Think Clark Road (72), right near Siesta Key, under Fruitville, and above Venice.

Sure, there’s Sky Ranch, Artistry, Worthington, and Grand Park—but nothing on the level of Wellen Park or Lakewood Ranch with multiple neighborhoods sharing amenities, walkability, and cohesive planning.

There’s talk of Hi Hat Ranch and 3H Ranch being future hubs, and when those hit? I think demand will explode. Not everyone wants to live in a hyper-master-planned bubble. They want Sarasota—but they want it accessible, modern, and still connected. Until then, the middle of the map remains the biggest missed opportunity.

5. Esplanade Is Coming to Wellen Park

Let’s talk Esplanade. Taylor Morrison’s beloved resort-style brand is making its first true appearance in the Wellen Park region—just south of the Golf & Country Club, on land near Myakka Pines Golf Club.

What to expect:

Roughly 870 homes

No golf tie-in (just social membership)

Classic Esplanade product: Roma, Lazio, Plazio on 45', 52', and 62' lots

Full suite of amenities, including Bahama bar, resort pool, clubhouse, and more

The biggest upside? Affordability. Because it’s Venice—not Lakewood Ranch—you might see pricing for these floorplans at levels we haven’t seen in years. Think: 2020 pricing for 2025 construction. And if they add any form of access to the adjacent golf club? This could be one of the most in-demand neighborhoods we’ve ever seen.

6. Gen X vs. Millennial Buyer Behavior

Let’s finish with something I've been watching closely: the generational split between Gen Z and Millennial buyers. Recent data shows a 10%+ uptick in contracts at 55+ communities like Del Webb Catalina, Crestwind, and Del Webb Bay View—paired with a decline in Millennial purchases.

Why the divide?

Gen X buyers often have more savings, fewer job ties, and fewer kids at home. They’re ready to relocate.

Millennials, on the other hand, may be working corporate jobs, raising kids, and dealing with limited mobility. A cross-country move is simply more risky.

Also—Millennials are more impacted by down payment challenges. Many can afford the monthly payment, but the lump-sum cash needed to get into a home is a major barrier. That’s where build-to-rent communities are likely to gain traction.

I expect this dynamic to continue for the rest of 2025—and maybe beyond.

Final Thoughts

That’s a wrap for today’s market breakdown across Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Venice, and Parrish. Hopefully this helped give you a deeper, more current understanding of what’s really happening and how to think about your next move.

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