Introduction

Over the past few years, I’ve worked with hundreds of people relocating to Florida—and thanks to that direct feedback loop, I’ve learned a ton. But as much as I thought I understood what drives people here, a few of my early assumptions haven’t exactly held up. In this post, I’m breaking down four big ideas I thought would be true—but turned out to be more complicated than expected.

1. I Thought Buyers Would Move To More Places

When you're looking at a state as geographically diverse as Florida—with coastal towns, big metros, golf communities, and school districts ranked top in the state—it seems logical that buyers would spread out. I assumed people would look at a range of areas: Orlando, Tampa Bay, Port St. Lucie, St. Johns County, even the Panhandle or Space Coast.

But that’s not what’s happening.

Our team works entirely with out-of-state relocation clients, and we’ve seen something surprising: everyone starts with a wide lens, but they all seem to end up in the same place. The Sarasota-Manatee County area has become the clear winner. People compare Sarasota to Naples and Tampa, and increasingly, Sarasota feels like the sweet spot. You get Gulf Coast beaches, strong public schools, reasonable hurricane history, access to Tampa and Naples—all in a relatively small geographic footprint.

What I’ve come to believe is that as the years go on, more and more buyers will look at dozens of cities… and then all end up shoving into just a few key metros. That kind of concentrated demand could create long-term price pressure and a very different market reality in those chosen few areas—while watering down others in the process.

2. I Thought Sellers Would Be More Desperate

Given rising inventory and softer demand, I expected resale sellers to start negotiating harder and pricing more realistically. But across the board, that hasn’t been consistent.

Sellers are often still anchored to 2022 comps—arguably the peak of an anomalous market. Many are listing based on what they need to make, not what the market says is realistic. And even when inventory picks up in places like Sarasota, buyers are still opting for new construction instead. So while resale listings pile up, the demand is quietly shifting elsewhere.

And it’s not just economics. Some sellers are in precarious personal situations—facing foreclosure or trying to avoid it—and others just don’t have a great grip on the competition. There’s no centralized system or shared understanding between the seller, their agent, the buyer, and their agent. The result is a messy, inconsistent resale market with a lot of noise—and a lot of frustration for buyers.

3. I Thought Buyers Wouldn’t Have This Much Power

This one surprised me the most. Not only are buyers still active, but they’re also strategic and patient—often empowered by strong exit markets back home.

Many people we talk to aren’t under pressure to sell fast. They’re selling in stable, seller-friendly suburbs in places like North Carolina or Georgia. That gives them the ability to shop Florida carefully, beat down builders on pricing or incentives, and sign contracts before they list their current home.

This sequencing gives them a huge advantage: they’re not rushed, they’re not panicked, and they can wait for the perfect opportunity. With the amount of new construction inventory in Florida and the leverage buyers have right now, it’s creating an unusually favorable environment—especially for those who are well-prepared.

4. I Didn’t Think Western Bradenton Would Happen

For a long time, I doubted that coastal Bradenton would ever become a major draw for out-of-state buyers. It’s patchy, eclectic, older in housing stock, and historically didn’t have the polished feel of Sarasota’s best pockets. If people had the budget for downtown Sarasota, they chose it. If they didn’t, they went east to Lakewood Ranch or Wellen Park.

But something’s changing.

The emergence of Seaflower, a large-scale, master-planned community on a former flower farm just 3.5 miles from the beach, is reshaping this whole area. Unlike smaller experiments like Aqua, Seaflower brings together multiple builders (David Weekley, Cardel, Issa, Pulte) under one vision: walkable, amenity-rich, and commercial-heavy—with a planned town square, golf cart paths, and retail woven into the fabric. It’s basically Lakewood Ranch on the coast.

This opens up a geography that was previously off the table for most out-of-state buyers. And if it works here, there’s no reason it won’t work in other overlooked pockets across the coast—especially in places where land is available and the fundamentals (beaches, access, lifestyle) are already strong.

Final Thoughts: Why This All Matters Now

These aren’t just interesting trends. They point to something bigger happening under the surface of Florida’s real estate market. What people want is evolving. Where they’re looking is narrowing. And how they behave is becoming more empowered and less rushed.

So, if you’re planning a move—or even just starting to think about it—the more you understand about the actual market mechanics (not just the headlines), the better equipped you’ll be. And that’s exactly what I aim to share through this channel.

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